Fire EruptingTier 2
at Gaming DNA ALC Store Champs
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 989–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1116
Q3 1349
1513
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 23.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
